All bars and restaurants to be closed 30 minutes from now. Schools closed, except for children of medical staff, etc. Population is asked to keep 1.5 meter physical distance.
One recent problem is that people from Belgium were going to Dutch bars, and people from the Dutch outbreak epicenter (Brabant) were going north.
We'll know in ~2 weeks if this was actually enough. But can't really think what else you can do; I'd rather not have the army in the streets.
Last count was 60 people on intensive care and a max capacity of about 1100 beds. Assuming that doubles every 4 days, it means you run out of beds in 2 weeks. But if the measures work, perhaps the new infection rate drops right before that happens, and we're clear (for now).
Dutch PM just announced that he embraces the bat shit crazy plan to create herd immunity by controlled infection of the population. Because the "experts" say so.
@sjors Why is it/do you think it is 'bat shit crazy'?
What did you expect instead?
I think a lot of people will get nervous from this msg, but I don't know what the appropriate thing/msg should be.
@FreePietje for the reasons Nassim Taleb pointed out on the bird site: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1238865934179340294
It's untested and unethical.
The right message would be the truth, and probably something like: we're going in lockdown now, can't do this forever, considering options, here's some ideas to think about.
It's important for RIVM to publish their models, so they can be critiqued. I made a call for that on the bird site: https://twitter.com/provoost/status/1239635468356026369
Then we have to find a better plan.
@sjors A vaccine is likely 18-24 months away afaik, so that doesn't help us in the short term.
I was annoyed at the lack of 'extreme' measures because there are too many unknowns/too many uncertainties and those weren't taken into account imo (and too high prio of the economy).
I also don't like/understand this herd immunity plan as I thought/think it applies to (vaccination) levels of 95+%, hence the anger towards the anti-vaxors.
For me, the speech raised more questions then it answered.
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